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Chapter 13 Landslides on São Miguel Island (Azores): susceptibility analysis and validation of rupture zones using a bivariate GIS-based statistical approach

R. Marques, P. Amaral, I. Araújo, J. L. Gaspar and J. L. Zêzere
Geological Society, London, Memoirs, 44, 167-184, 16 September 2015, https://doi.org/10.1144/M44.13
R. Marques
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
2Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Informação e Vigilância Sismovulcânica dos Açores, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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  • For correspondence: rui.tf.marques@azores.gov.pt
P. Amaral
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
3Laboratório Regional de Engenharia Civil, Rua de São Gonçalo 9500–343 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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I. Araújo
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
2Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Informação e Vigilância Sismovulcânica dos Açores, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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J. L. Gaspar
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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J. L. Zêzere
4Centro de Estudos Geográficos, IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício FLUL, Alameda da Universidade, 1600–214 Lisboa, Portugal
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Abstract

Since settlement of São Miguel Island in the middle of the fifteenth century, several destructive landslides have occurred. These have been triggered by various factors, of which rainfall is the most common. Between 1900 and 2008, based on extensive documentary evidence, 193 landslide events with socio-economic impact have been identified. These events have been responsible for 67 deaths, about 20 people have been seriously injured, and dozens of houses destroyed and people rendered homeless. In this chapter, the Information Value Method is used to produce a landslide rupture susceptibility map for São Miguel. Success and prediction rate curves (SRC and PRC) are computed and areas under the curve (AUC) calculated in order to not only support the results of modelling, but also assess the robustness of the suggested susceptibility algorithm. Twelve predisposing factors are used as independent variables and a total of 9890 landslide depletion areas are used as the dependent variable. The AUC for both the SRC and the PRC was 0.90. The methodology used for the construction of the susceptibility map was shown to be both accurate and reliable. The map is an important tool for land-use/emergency planning and for landslide risk mitigation.

  • © 2015 The Author(s). Published by The Geological Society of London. All rights reserved
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Geological Society, London, Memoirs: 44 (1)
Geological Society, London, Memoirs
Volume 44
2015
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Chapter 13 Landslides on São Miguel Island (Azores): susceptibility analysis and validation of rupture zones using a bivariate GIS-based statistical approach

R. Marques, P. Amaral, I. Araújo, J. L. Gaspar and J. L. Zêzere
Geological Society, London, Memoirs, 44, 167-184, 16 September 2015, https://doi.org/10.1144/M44.13
R. Marques
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
2Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Informação e Vigilância Sismovulcânica dos Açores, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • For correspondence: rui.tf.marques@azores.gov.pt
P. Amaral
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
3Laboratório Regional de Engenharia Civil, Rua de São Gonçalo 9500–343 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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I. Araújo
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
2Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Informação e Vigilância Sismovulcânica dos Açores, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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J. L. Gaspar
1Departamento de Geociências, Rua Mãe de Deus, Centro de Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos Geológicos, Universidade dos Açores, Edifício do Complexo Científico, 3° Piso, Ala Sul. 9500–501 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
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J. L. Zêzere
4Centro de Estudos Geográficos, IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício FLUL, Alameda da Universidade, 1600–214 Lisboa, Portugal
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Chapter 13 Landslides on São Miguel Island (Azores): susceptibility analysis and validation of rupture zones using a bivariate GIS-based statistical approach

R. Marques, P. Amaral, I. Araújo, J. L. Gaspar and J. L. Zêzere
Geological Society, London, Memoirs, 44, 167-184, 16 September 2015, https://doi.org/10.1144/M44.13
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    • Abstract
    • Geological and geomorphological setting
    • Landslide events in the period 1900–2008
    • Data and methods used in the analysis of landslide susceptibility
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